The factional showdown between President Cyril Ramaphosa and Deputy President Paul Mashatile is pushing South Africa’s fragile Government of National Unity (GNU) to the brink.
The Ramaphosa vs Mashatile battle has exposed deep ideological and strategic fissures within the ANC, as well as between the ANC and its key coalition partner, the Democratic Alliance (DA). According to Professor André Duvenhage, research director at North-West University, “Clearly, there are fundamental ideological differences, especially among the major roleplayers. Here, I am including specifically the DA and the ANC.”
Mashatile has taken a hardline stance against the DA’s recent opposition to the national budget, likening the party to a crocodile that must be handled with caution. This rhetoric stands in stark contrast to Ramaphosa’s calls for “cool heads” and continued cooperation within the GNU framework.
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Duvenhage believes the stakes are high for Ramaphosa: “The business sector is putting a lot of pressure on Ramaphosa to keep the current government of national unity going. At the same time, we have seen strong indications of isolation that is going on from an international perspective.”
The Ramaphosa vs Mashatile conflict appears to be rooted in a broader political calculus. “Paul Mashatile saw in this impasse the opportunity to mobilise against Ramaphosa,” Duvenhage noted, adding that “rumours behind the scenes” suggest Mashatile may be acting out of political survival amid alleged criminal investigations.
The GNU’s stability now hinges on Ramaphosa securing support from over 200 MPs. “Without the DA, he cannot achieve it,” said Duvenhage. “It’s a high-risk environment for the president.”
With Mashatile reportedly aligning with populist forces like the EFF and eyeing the Gauteng coalition model as a national template, the Mashatile vs Ramaphosa power struggle could ultimately decide the fate of both the GNU and Ramaphosa’s presidency.
The GNU was formed after the 2024 general elections produced no outright majority. Ramaphosa’s ANC, facing waning support and internal divisions, entered a coalition with the DA and smaller parties to maintain governance stability. However, ideological clashes, especially over economic policy and governance style, have strained the alliance. Paul Mashatile, long positioned as a power broker within the ANC, has increasingly emerged as a rival to Ramaphosa’s leadership, fuelling speculation of a looming shift in the party’s internal dynamics.
Image: Yeshiel Panchia / Xinhua News Agency/Newscom/MaxPPP
