Image Source: SowetanLive
Local – Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures & Innovation at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), has sharply criticised the recent remarks by the Presidency regarding the possibility of a coup in South Africa.
He argues that not only is it an irresponsible and unfounded allegation, but also one that risks inciting panic, undermining investor confidence, and diverting attention from far more pressing national concerns.
His comments follow Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni’s warning during the public release of South Africa’s national security strategy.
The statement marked the first time a democratic South African government acknowledged a potential coup, prompting widespread concern across the country.
“I think it’s very irresponsible, both remarks by the Presidency, but also the response by the media. This is a ridiculous allegation to be made, to be frank,” said Cilliers.
“The SANDF can hardly manage itself. Do we think they are capable of organising a coup in a relatively developed country such as South Africa? I think this is a storm in a teacup.”
Military Capacity’ Just Not There’
Cilliers believes talk of a military coup is entirely detached from reality. He explained that any coup would require total control over state institutions, a scenario far beyond the capability of South Africa’s current armed forces.
“To do a coup… let’s say by the military, which is normally where a coup comes from, they would need to be able to control the state institutions,” he said. “The military can’t even deploy to northern Mozambique or the eastern part of the DRC. They are underfunded.”
He also pointed out that the national security document recently approved by the Cabinet did not refer to a coup. “The only mention is a definition in the annexure of what a coup d’etat is.”
Intelligence, Not Insurrection, Is the Real Crisis
Cilliers warned that the actual threat lies within the country’s intelligence infrastructure. He stated that the ongoing dysfunction, political interference, and lack of independent oversight remain the root cause of South Africa’s security failures.
“What the government needs to do is to make sure that the appointments within the security establishment are done independently and based on competence, not on factionalism and not on nepotism,” he said.
“If we politically have the will to get on top of crime in South Africa, it can be done.”
