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Local – South Africa’s latest crime statistics show a further reduction in the national murder rate, with criminologist Dr Guy Lamb describing the trend across the country’s highest-crime provinces as encouraging.
The figures, covering the first quarter of the 2026/2027 financial year from April to June, continue a downward trend in murder, which is widely used as a proxy for broader levels of violent crime.
Lamb said the sharpest declines have come out of the Western Cape, where sustained police operations appear to be having an effect on the ground, particularly in areas long associated with gang-related violence. He pointed to Cape Town as an example of where visible policing has translated directly into the numbers.
“The crime stats demonstrate the police have been a lot more active in the city of Cape Town, and that’s demonstrated in the stats. So for those of your viewers or listeners in Delft, for example, you may not feel like it’s a safe place, but the data is showing that Delft has seen major reductions in violent crime,” Lamb said.
A Tale of Two Provinces
Not every region is moving in the same direction. Lamb flagged Nelson Mandela Bay in the Eastern Cape as a concerning exception, where murders are rising even as the national figure falls, with gang activity again identified as a key driver.
“Positive news in terms of the decline is that, for those of your viewers and listeners within the Eastern Cape, particularly in the Nelson Mandela Bay metro, we are seeing increases within that particular area, and that’s probably linked to gang violence,” Lamb said.
Gains May Not Last
Lamb was cautious about whether the statistics reflect a genuine improvement in safety or a temporary effect of concentrated policing. He warned that operations such as Operation Shanela and Operation Lockdown can suppress crime in targeted areas without addressing its underlying causes, meaning any gains could reverse once police resources are redirected elsewhere.
“These declines are most likely due to the investment in policing operations. Operation Shanela, for example, Operation Lockdown, where you see large numbers of police members deployed to high-crime areas,” Lamb said.
Lamb added that the government needs to invest more heavily in its strategy to tackle the root drivers of violent crime, rather than relying on repeated deployments to keep numbers down.
