Image: Stats SA
Local – South Africa’s economy is roughly 5% larger than previously estimated, after Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) revised its national accounts. The revision, which uses 2022 as its reference year, is carried out every five years and allows the agency to improve its methods and estimates and to use new data sources.
Deputy Director General responsible for Economic Statistics, Joe de Beer, said the process allowed Stats SA to improve its approach and, after going through it, the agency found the economy was larger than it had previously estimated. However, he said the change would have little direct effect on households.
“I don’t think it makes much of a difference to consumers. It doesn’t impact, for example, increased prices or unemployment. It is purely a restatement of the size.”
A Different Picture Of The Economy
The revision carries practical implications beyond the headline figure. In the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, the minister expressed government debt as a percentage of GDP. With GDP now higher, those debt levels are slightly lower than previously stated.
De Beer said more accurate statistics benefit all users. He said the revision also showed a change in how the economy is made up, which would be good news for industry and policy analysts focused on particular sectors, as they would now have a better idea of those industries’ size.
“From a policy perspective, we have found that the economy is structured slightly differently. For example, mining is more important than what we thought. Manufacturing is less important.”
Measuring The Informal Sector
The new estimates capture more of the informal, or non-observed, sector, including households generating their own electricity through solar panels, illicit trade in tobacco and illegal mining by zama zamas. Although the formal sector accounts for slightly more than 90% of the economy, it is still important to understand what is happening in the non-observed sector.
A few months ago, Stats SA, SARS and the South African Police Service began looking at what statistics each holds and how to combine them. De Beer said that if SARS collected more revenue, policy departments could increase spending without taking on further debt. He said a single activity, such as illegal tobacco imports, interested several role players, including SARS, the border management agency and the police. Still, Stats SA focused on measuring the economy more accurately.
He added that Stats SA estimates the economy passed R8 trillion for the first time in 2025, and said the updated figures underlined South Africa’s role on the continent.
“I think it restates the importance of our economy on the continent because, sizewise, it has always been between ourselves, Nigeria and Egypt, the three large economies on the continent.”
