As the southern hemisphere steps out of winter, attention now turns to whether the power utility will be able to meet demand under sweltering summer conditions. Eskom CEO Dan Marokane seemed confident when he provided an update this week.
“If we keep the unplanned losses below 13 000 GW, we should be having a loadshedding-free summer. At worst, we anticipate, in the unlikely event that the escalation of unplanned losses reaches up to 15 500, we’ll at most experience stage two,” he said.
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Turnaround
Just last year, loadshedding was a familiar feature of daily life in SA. Despite being blessed with an abundance of renewable energy, the country’s dependence on ageing coal power stations kept it in the dark for hours on end.
However, the situation appears to be brighter as the private sector’s increased involvement coincides with improved performance at the utility’s stations.
Noting an “encouraging” summer outlook, Mathew Cruise, energy expert at Forest Energy stressed the importance of maintenance and management to avoid loadshedding.
“According to the latest data from Eskom, unplanned capacity losses stood at 11,451 MW as of 23:00 on the 26th Aug. This current figure underscores the importance of effective maintenance and management strategies to ensure the stability of the power grid in the coming months,” he said.
Since April, unplanned capacity losses have been 12 400 MW on average, against 15 500 MW in the comparable period in the previous year and that average had declined to 10 500 MW during August, reported Engineering News on Monday.
Marokane and his team are counting on additional generation capacity set to materialise in coming months.
“In a few months, we’ll also bring on board generation capacity from Medupi Unit 4; from Kusile, Unit 6; and the second unit from Kusile that is going through its long-term operation programme. That 2500 MW will add a significant margin to our reserves.”
Meanwhile, Cruise said a planned 40% tariff increase was likely to cause more businesses to reduce their reliance on Eskom once it came into effect next year.
“This significant hike is likely to have the impact of businesses reducing their dependence on Eskom’s electricity by turning to solar installations as a more cost-effective alternative,” he said.
