A recent Constitutional Court victory has emboldened the African National Congress (ANC) to reconsider its national coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA).
Fikile Mbalula, the ANC’s secretary-general, on Thursday (15 October) questioned the DA’s continued participation in the government of national unity (GNU) after the court permitted its previously-omitted candidates to be included on the ballot for the upcoming elections.
The DA had opposed the ANC’s appeal to the court, asserting that all parties should comply with deadlines. The ANC interpreted this as an attempt to disenfranchise its supporters in six municipalities where its candidates would have been left out. This, Mbalula concluded, “does not sit easily”.
“We must review the DA in the Government of National Unity. If somebody is a partner but is not your ally … is there any need to maintain that relationship in the GNU? We must look for other partners. There’s nothing that binds us forever with the DA in the GNU.”
Ashor Sarupen, chairperson of the DA’s Federal Council, retorted: “The reality is that the DA is not in the GNU to get along, and we will vigorously defend the rule of law and the equal application of the law. At present, we are completely focused on winning in towns and cities, and removing the ANC because they have destroyed those municipalities.”
This is not the first dispute between the two biggest parties of the GNU. It will not be the last. The parties have clashed over the National Health Insurance Act, Basic Education Laws Amendment Act, and Expropriation Act. The ANC’s proposed VAT increase triggered a rumble in 2025, and so did President Cyril Ramaphosa’s axing of Andrew Whitfield. They remain at loggerheads.
The present administration is due to complete its term in 2029, but several difficulties lie ahead.
The upcoming municipal elections, less than three weeks hence, pose the most immediate threat. In seeking to differentiate themselves in the eyes of voters, parties may distance themselves from the GNU’s failures or choose to walk out altogether.
Even if it survives the municipal election period, it could be destabilised by the ANC’s own internal leadership election, due in December 2027. Competing rivals will take positions for and against the GNU. The review itself may be Mbalula’s attempt to resuscitate his presidential ambitions by displacing the blame onto an external actor, the DA.
What happens next? A review of the GNU might produce an entirely new configuration, adjust the status quo or maintain it.
An ANC-MKP-EFF coalition remains mathematically possible, though unlikely. The ANC might “punish” the DA by demoting its ministers from high-profile portfolios, triggering the blue party’s own review of its participation in the present arrangement. It is also possible that the status quo will be maintained, as rickety as it is.
Read next: “Is it worth the risk?” Greenpeace Africa challenges oil and gas expansion
Image credit: The Citizen/Nigel Sibanda
