Image: The Citizen
World – South Africa’s exit from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) will raise tariffs on some exports to the United States but is unlikely to disrupt trade or local chicken supplies, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo said.
Sihlobo said South Africa had been told by 2016 that, as an upper-middle-income country, it should leave AGOA and negotiate a bilateral free trade agreement with the US. He said this was not possible at the time because South Africa negotiates trade deals as part of the Southern African Customs Union, and its neighbours in the union were less economically advanced.
“So, on the framing of all of this, I would start it off by saying South Africa has graduated out of AGOA, not been booted out. The reason I say that is because there’s a long context here because remember AGOA was extended to various African countries as a form of developmental support where African countries can be able to sell their products to the US market duty-free,” he said.
Tariffs Lower Than Last Year
The US announced on 2 November that South Africa will lose its AGOA eligibility from 1 January 2027, citing practices it said were inconsistent with the programme’s eligibility criteria. South African goods now face a 12.5% US tariff, down from 30% previously. About 74,000 tonnes of US chicken a year currently enters South Africa exempt from anti-dumping duties, a concession made to keep AGOA benefits, and the South African Poultry Association wants it scrapped.
Sihlobo said exporters would pay the most-favoured-nation tariff, which averages about 3.4%, on top of the 12.5%. That takes the average to about 15.9%. He said this would not stop trade, and pointed out that agricultural exports to the US fell by only 3% last year when tariffs were at 30%. South Africa imports about 20% of the chicken it eats, or roughly 400,000 tonnes a year, mostly from Brazil, he said.
“But South Africans in general should not worry about this because there’s a lot of poultry in the world’s market. As I said, 70% will already get it from Brazil. Brazilians may increase their volume, or the EU may increase their volume and many others,” he said.
Looking Beyond the US
South Africa’s agricultural exports reached a record $15.1bn in 2025. The US took about 4% of them and the Middle East about 8%. The main agricultural exports to the US include citrus, berries, grapes, wine, fruit juices and nuts.
Sihlobo said South Africa had already spent two years trying to diversify its exports. He said the Middle East was an attractive market and exports to Asia could also grow, but South Africa wanted to keep the markets it already has in Africa, the EU and the Americas.
“So what the moment brings to us is the need to have choice and make sure that we have as many markets open as possible so that businesses in South Africa can decide where to sell. It’s not necessarily a move away from the United States. Still, rather a catalyst to provide South African businesses with a choice to move around and be able to sell to several countries,” he said.
