The new Omicron subvariant is not as dangerous as previous waves Photo Pexels
South Africa – The latest study by scientists at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) has found, since the emergence of the Omicron subvariant, there has been a substantial increase in the reinfection risk not seen in the Delta and Beta variants. The study was authored by some of South Africa’s foremost Covid-19 experts.
The study also found that two subvariants are currently dominating in South Africa namely BA.4 and BA.5. While there has been a gradual increase in reinfections, it has not been higher than the original Omicron variant. Dr. Shameem Jaumdally, Senior Research Scientist at the UCT Lung Institute: Allergy & Immunology Unit (AIU), said experts have been expecting and anticipating a rise in cases. This is not something that has caught them off guard.
“Over the last two weeks we have been hearing reports around us of people getting infected again with Covid. From our perspective, as experts in the field, we knew that it was going to happen. We’ve seen over the past two years that we will have waves of infection that will hit us at specific times.”
Predicting when the Omicron waves will occur
Scientists know when the waves will occur by analysing the previous waves and compiling that information together. By doing this, Jamudally and his team have found two characteristics that allow them to predict when the next wave will take place.
“These waves will be characterised by two main features. The first feature is that it’s going to be driven by a virus that is new, that is different to the last one. It will also happen at specific intervals. We’ve seen now that waves generally strike around four months after the end of the previous wave, which for us happened around March, April. What we see now is a rise in the number of cases.”
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The dangers of the new Omicron subvariant
While there are always concerns when a new subvariant is found, Jamudally is certain this will not be like the last wave. While people will get sick, they won’t need to be hospitalised.
“There is an increase in cases. It will most likely be like the last one that we had where people will get infected. People will get symptoms but it’s not going to lead to people getting hospitalised and people dying like we’ve seen in 2020 and 2021. We knew it was going to happen but we also anticipate that it’s not going to be as problematic as we’ve known before.”
The natural evolution of a virus is to become more transmissible. The new subvariant will most likely be more transmissible. At the same time, Jamudally believes it will also become less dangerous. While more people might get infected, the symptoms will not be as severe as the last wave.
“While it’s gaining a certain fitness in being more transmissible than its previous cousin, it also comes with a decreased capacity to cause disease in the body. This is part of the natural evolution of a virus. For it to continue surviving and holding some form of presence in a community, it needs to be more transmissible, but it also needs to have less of an impact in terms of affecting and killing people. Otherwise, there won’t be any anybody around to continue being a host for the virus.”
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Is it Omicron or is it the flu
More and more people are getting sick. You might even know someone who has some of the symptoms of Covid. Jamudally explained that most people who have gotten sick during the past few weeks probably caught the flu. However, it is only worse now as our immune systems have forgotten what the flu is. This a result from masking up the whole of last year and not contracting it.
“We get the normal seasonal influenza that we call influenza A, influenza B that will come and infect people and cause those respiratory diseases as well. People who would get infected by these different respiratory viruses would generally manifest more severe symptoms and will take more time to clear because our body has not been exposed to those types of viruses over the last two winters. In 2020 and 2021 people were wearing masks and there were restrictions in terms of gathering and meeting up … because of that our body and our immune system, more specifically, has forgotten what these viruses look like. The immune memory that our body has, has kind of decreased.”
Getting infected with the seasonal influenza now is not necessarily a bad thing. It will help to better prepare us for next year when the flu season comes back, said Jamudally.
Precautions that should be taken
We are coming out of the era of masks being compulsory to wear and sanitising. People may not want to mask up again, but Jamudally explained it is the best method to avoid catching any virus. Especially for those who have a chronic condition.
“What Covid has taught us is that if we do have any form of manifestation of an early sign, especially of respiratory infections or respiratory symptoms, it would be fair to actually wear masks and minimise our meeting with people … We know that Covid can and is still a problem for the most vulnerable people. It will be in the interest of these people that they take precautions and wear masks. Not all the time but mostly when they are indoors. Places where there is no ventilation, where there is a large gathering. That would be the best advice that we can give people right now. ”
It is also in the interest of those who are vulnerable to take a booster shot. This will give them greater protection, said Jamudally.
The new Omicron subvariant is likely to be more transmissible with less severe symptoms. However, Jamudally stressed it is still important to take precautions. Those who have flu-like symptoms should monitor themselves. Should they experience headaches or feel lethargic, they should immediately get tested, advised Jamudally.
