Image Source: Daily News Egypt
World – Senior Researcher at the Mapungubwe Institute, Na’eem Jeenah, argues that the ongoing attacks and bombardments in Lebanon, which have claimed over 500 lives and displaced thousands, have moved from mere escalation to a calculated effort by Israel to spark a broader regional conflict.
He suggests that Israel’s actions are not just about targeting Lebanon but are part of a larger strategy aimed at provoking Iran into a confrontation with the United States.
This confrontation would subsequently divert attention from Israel’s military challenges in Gaza, the West Bank, and along the Lebanese border while also trying to offset its declining international reputation, as seen in the widespread condemnation at the UN General Assembly.
By intensifying the conflict, Israel’s government seeks to trigger a regional war that would guarantee continued financial, military, and diplomatic support from its Western allies. This, in turn, would allow Israel to sustain the genocide in Gaza, maintain the occupation of the West Bank, and continue its assaults on Lebanon without facing overwhelming international and domestic criticism.
“The Israeli calculation is that if it becomes a regional war, particularly if they can force Iran into a war, then the United States will get involved on the Israeli side. Their hope then is that once and for all, they will deal with Iran and destroy it if it’s Israel together with the United States. I believe that is the bigger calculation here.”
“So, it starts with—well, I shouldn’t say it starts with Lebanon because they have already provoked Iran on numerous occasions in the past year, including the consulate bombing, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and other actions. The escalation now with Hezbollah is, in a sense, part of a wider war—from the Israeli perspective—a regional war that will pull Iran into it on one side and the Americans on the other.”
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Iran’s Calculated Response to Israeli Provocation
Professor Seyed Mohammed Marandi from the University of Tehran also highlighted this view, noting that Israel’s leadership is eager for a confrontation between Iran and the US. He explained that Israel has faced setbacks on several fronts, including Gaza, the West Bank, and the Lebanese border.
“I think it’s increasingly clear that the Israeli regime, this evil and rogue regime, and illegitimate regime, has lost the war. It has lost on the Lebanese border, it has lost in Gaza, it has lost in the Red Sea, and it has lost in the West Bank.”
“Netanyahu and the other Zionist leaders are looking for a way out, and they do want to escalate to have a confrontation between Iran and the United States.”
“The Israeli regime, of course, on its own, is weak and puny. It only stays afloat because the West is constantly sending in new weapons, ammunition, financial assistance, intelligence, and of course, political cover and media propaganda.”
However, Iran has taken a more strategic approach by holding off on an impulsive response to Israel’s ongoing provocations. This delay keeps Israel under mounting pressure, as the uncertainty of when or how Iran will retaliate forces them to remain on high alert.
As Professor Marandi explains, Iran is biding its time, waiting for the perfect moment to strike. This careful timing is intended to deliver a blow that will have a greater impact, leaving Israel in a much weaker strategic position when the retaliation finally comes.
“Some people say, ‘Why is Iran taking its time?’ Iran wants to maximise and find the opportune moment to hit Israel, to make it hurt and to change the equation. The delay has cost the Israelis a great deal.”
“Many foreign airlines are no longer flying to Israel. Government buildings have had to constantly work in fear, having to move around, unable to operate in a normal fashion because they are constantly concerned about a sudden Iranian decision.”
“A decision will come, but ultimately when Iran has maximised that effect, that economic impact on Israel, Iran will strike the regime. It will strike in a way that strengthens the hand of the resistance in Lebanon and, of course, the resistance in Gaza and the West Bank.”
