A blackout could soon happen but are we prepared for it Photo DoomandBloom
South Africa – With the country facing permanent loadshedding, many fear that Eskom’s fragile electricity grid may fail. If that is to happen, the entire country will be plunged into darkness. With the risk of a national blackout ever increasing, it is important to ensure one is prepared should it happen. The US has already warned its citizens living in the country to prepare for a national blackout.
Professor Sunetra Chowdhury, UCT’s electrical engineering department, explained that a national blackout occurs when there is a significant shortfall in generation leading to a high imbalance between load and generation. This can cause generation units to trip one by one which is called “cascaded failure”.
How long a national blackout lasts is entirely dependent on how quickly the generation units can be started back up. Prof. Harro von Blottnitz, Director of Energy Systems Research Group, indicates it could be between one to three weeks. Even when the lights come on, critical services will be first and not households.
“This means that after about a week without any electricity, critical users, such as water supply and hospitals, might start to be reconnected. As other users are reconnected, they might initially be on only two to six hours of electricity a day, akin to starting on stage 16 loadshedding and then returning bit by bit to lower levels. But we really do not know how this would play out.”
What will happen when the lights go out
With a national blackout comes the very real reality that we will be transported back to the dark ages so to say. At stage 6 loadshedding we have seen areas in Gauteng suffer water shortage. After a day or so many taps will run dry in areas, explained von Blottnitz. Another big issue will be the impact it will have on the sewage facilities and households.
“Without electricity, raw sewage will very quickly overflow at pump stations. Liquid fuel may also very quickly become a problem, as fuel stations need electricity to pump fuel to customers. Food supply chains are likely to break down. At the household level, fridges and freezers would of course stop working, with fresh and frozen food needing to be cooked and then eaten very quickly, otherwise it would go off. Communication networks would also largely break down. Some radio stations might be equipped to keep going through such a crisis.”
We have probably all read about stockpiling on goods and water, fuel, canned food, backup fuel sources and medical supplies. We’ve read the social media messages broadcasted to create panic and chaos. We’ve all been through not one but two lockdowns. Going through these things has shown us that, despite the groups amongst us who wish to separate us and create apartheid like divisions, South Africans work well in their communities. They can relay and support each other in times of crisis. We all came together during the lockdowns and the July Riots of 2021. Community togetherness is the key. When we get right down to it, we can be a rainbow nation. One that looks out for its neighbours, looks out for friends and is always ready to lend a helping hand.
The strength of a community
It is important to build strong security with your neighbours. There is strength in unity, there is strength in numbers. From past experiences, we learn exactly what is needed in order for a community to survive, explained Dr. Cameron Carlson, founding director of the UAF Homeland Security and Emergency Management program.
“Power outages can have a significant impact on local communities. People and organisations need to be prepared for power outages by having a plan in place to ensure the safety and well-being of themselves and their communities. This includes having emergency supplies, backup power sources, and knowing how to report and respond to outages.”
It is easier to survive with a group than alone for various reasons, says Kylene Jones, coauthor of The Provident Prepper – A common sense Guide to Preparing for Emergencies. A group of people will have a variety of skills and resources. Everyone will bring a certain skill and resource that is needed to survive.
“No matter how well we prepare for possible hazards, if our community is not prepared then we are definitely in trouble. Survival rates significantly increase when a group of people work together as opposed to you just working alone … if you combine the skills of 10 families, you will be amazed at the diverse skill set you have access to. This collection of skills and resources increase the probability of survival.”
You may have an older couple in the community who have acquired many tools but are too weak to use it. A younger family may be in the opposite situation. Strong and fit but lacking tools and resources. Working together, they can put their strengths together and both can benefit greatly.
Getting prepared for any disaster with the community is the same as getting prepared on your own. You still need to get the same basic essentials. However, now that you are working with the community, you have a larger pool of resources and more space to work with. Preparing with the community also helps create an unbreakable bond, a family bond.
“Community not only blesses each other during tough times, but can lift and strengthen each other through the daily challenges of life. Everyone is considered family and family always looks out for each other.”
Everyone has limitations and everyone has weaknesses but they also have strengths. A limitation or weakness of one person can be cancelled out by the strength of another, said Jones. That’s what a strong community does. They cancel out each other’s weakness and thus create a stronger group and community.
Helping to avoid a national blackout
While the possibility of a national blackout remains very unlikely, explained von Blottnitz, it can not be ruled out. The electricity supply situation has worsened to such a degree that insurance companies have alerted their customers that losses occurred as a result of a national blackout are not covered. To avoid this, citizens can make small changes to their lives to ease the pressure on the grid.
“There’s a saying amongst energy professionals that “efficiency is the first fuel”. If you still use old style light bulbs, think again! If you have an old fridge that continuously makes a noise, think about replacing it. You’ll immediately see a drop in your electricity bill. TVs do not need to be on all the time, and not even on standby. On food preparation, think about more fresh foods/salads. Hot water is a very big electricity user, so shorter showers not only save water, but also electricity.”
In any event, it is better to be prepared than to be caught in the dark with no preparations made. Even better would be start making changes which mean we use less. A national blackout may not happen but is good to be prepared. Make sure you build those relationships with your neighbours because we are always stronger together.
