Image Source: Eskom
Local – Eskom is planning to avoid load shedding during the winter period, but the Minister of Electricity has confirmed that load reduction will remain in place to protect infrastructure and ensure public safety in areas where illegal connections overload the system.
According to reports, thanks to Eskom’s improved operational performance and the addition of new capacity, South Africa has high confidence that it will enjoy a stable electricity supply this winter.
Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane explained that load shedding should be avoided if unplanned outages remain below 13 gigawatts (GW).
“If outages increase to 15GW, load shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days at stage 2 — an improvement over last winter’s worst-case stage 5 prediction,” Marokane said at a media briefing in Johannesburg.
He noted that unplanned outages have dropped by 3.1GW compared to last year, with the forecast now between 13-15GW. Importantly, last winter saw no load shedding, with average unplanned outages at just 12.3GW, well below expectations.
“This year’s winter outlook prediction is built on an improvement in operational performance and overall efficiency,” Marokane stated.
“In FY 2025, we delivered power 96% of the time, compared to just 9.9% the previous year. We also cut diesel turbine use by 50%, saving R16 billion.”
Still, Marokane acknowledged earlier setbacks, adding that “a targeted plan has been put in place to reinforce operational discipline and accelerate recovery initiatives.”
New Capacity Coming Online
Minister of Electricity and Energy, Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, highlighted that additional generation capacity will support the grid this winter. Koeberg unit 1 has been approved for 20 more years of operation, and Kusile units 1, 2, and 3 are being restored.
“Kusile unit 6 has been synchronised to the grid. It is yet to be in commercial operation. It is a technical issue. It is \[providing electricity] and at times, it must be taken out to be fixed. Once it gets into commercial operation, we will get the long-term benefits of the unit.
“We plan to bring back Medupi unit 4 back to service during winter. It has been out of service for about four years. We are expecting to get about 800MW in the middle of winter,” Ramokgopa said.
Between April 2024 and March 2025, Eskom implemented load shedding on only 13 days, a sharp drop from 329 and 208 days in the previous two years. Marokane also pointed to a 45% reduction in diesel use and stronger electricity output.
Eskom’s Generation Executive, Bheki Nxumalo, stressed that ongoing maintenance and a reinforced recovery plan are crucial as winter demand rises.
“We have evolved our Generation Recovery Plan to ensure our data-led analysis into the delays in returning units from outages on time, which has caused our fleet to be constrained and not able to accommodate a sudden loss of units, receives intense management focus, as we use our ‘high challenge, high support’ culture to support our teams to rectify this situation,” Nxumalo said.
