Photo by [Daily Sabah]
The 24 of February marks one year since Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. Russian officials stated their objectives were to denazify and demilitarise Ukraine.
Thembisa Fakude, Senior Researcher at AFRASID, said the invasion of Ukraine achieved the exact opposite of what Russia intended.
“He initially went into this war for objectives that have not been achieved. One was to demilitarise Ukraine, that was his claim, and the other claim was to denazify Ukraine, all of [which] has not happened … In fact, he has invited NATO to establish itself in Ukraine. Ukraine is much more armed than it was before.”
The year-long conflict has had crippling effects not only in Ukraine but on global politics and economies, from spiking oil prices to inflating the prices of food.
In Ukraine, thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, along with Ukrainian civilians. The Russian military destroyed basic infrastructure in Ukrainian cities. Millions of Ukrainians fled their homes to neighbouring countries, causing mass displacement due to the war.
In Russia, the sanctions imposed on the country by the US and EU allies will likely have long-term effects on the Russian economy. Civil society is expected to bear the brunt of the sanctions.
“The western nations have responded to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine by imposing sanctions and other measures. Particularly economic measures, [including] social and cultural isolation of Russia. But other than that, we haven’t seen much destruction in Russia. In the long term, Russia will begin to feel the pinch of these sanctions.”
Ukrainian Resistance
Since the war began, the Ukrainian government has received unwavering financial and military support from western powers, which assisted the Ukrainians in mounting successful defensive maneuvers, which kept the Russian military at bay.
Furthermore, the West imposed various economic sanctions on Russia, individuals and entities aimed at isolating the Eastern European superpower from the rest of the world.
Fakude said he does not foresee the West halting their support of Ukraine or backing out of the war as it will mean defeat. He also does not see Russia as having the capabilities and resources to push the might of the West into submission.
“I don’t think that Russia has got the necessary resources to push the West into submission. Russia is not the richest country in the world. Besides, they [the West] are going to continue with the sanctions. So, Russia will never exhaust the resources or reserves of the Europeans, NATO and the United States. It’s just simply impossible. The only country that is likely to step out of this would be Russia because its economy is a tiny drop compared to NATO, US, and the Europeans combined.”
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Nuclear Possibility
On Tuesday, President Putin announced Russia is suspending their participation in the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty or START. It is a pact between the US and Russia, which sees both countries reduce and limit the amount of strategic nuclear arms they can deploy.
However, reports suggest Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated their suspension from participation does not increase the risk of nuclear war.
Fakude adds, what is troubling him is President Putin’s continuous irresponsible rhetoric of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The insinuation of using nuclear deterrents is due to the Ukrainian military rappelling Russian advancement, placing them on the back foot.
“We all thought that this was going to be a short war, but it has taken a year because the Ukrainians have put up a fight. I think Putin thought that it was going to be a walkover, but he was surprised when the Ukrainians put up a fight … The Ukrainians are holding forth and are fighting back. We thought that by now, Russia would have pushed back Ukraine. But Ukrainians are pushing back and reclaiming some of the lands that have been or were conquered by Russia.”
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Peace Talks Between Russia and Ukraine
Over the course of the year, multiple countries have made efforts to initiate peace talks between the two nations. As some are calling for diplomacy and de-escalation. In Fakude’s opinion, he believes peace talks will unlikely reach some settlement between the two nations, as no nation including the West wants to accept defeat.
Moreover, he believes that Russian officials do not want a nuclear fallout and that if President Putin is to stay the course, he will begin to lose the confidence of his officials and civil society.
“It’s unlikely that you’re going to have a negotiation. What you will see now is Putin digging in his heels. We’ll see some of his senior officials abandoning posts and defecting to the West. At least, that’s what I believe. You will see some of the oligarchs also starting to organise and isolate Putin … And there’ll be sporadic protests inside Moscow. People are going to start protesting as their quality of life deteriorates.”
