President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (left) with NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg (center) and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (right) Photo Twitter @jensstoltenberg
After more than a year of negotiations and consistently blocking Sweden’s bid to join NATO, Erdoğan’s flipped stance has come as a complete surprise. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Monday that Erdoğan agreed to forward Sweden’s membership bid to Turkey’s parliament.
Erdoğan had previously shown reservations about Sweden’s NATO membership due to their perceived support for the Kurdish militant group, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or the PKK, which Turkey considers a terrorist organisation. Erdoğan sought assurances from Sweden that they would no longer provide support to the PKK, explained Zeenat Adam from The Afro-Middle East Centre. Recent events, such as Sweden arresting a PKK member, were seen as confidence-building measures by Erdoğan.
“He had reservations about Sweden particularly when it came to their support for the PKK that is operating within the Turkish borders and across the border. That was a very critical point that he wanted resolved in terms of the negotiations and he wanted assurances from Sweden that they would no longer be looking at support for the Kurdish PKK. Sweden arrested a member of the PKK a couple of weeks ago. That seemed to have been one of their confidence building measures.”
Turkey’s importance to NATO
Adam pointed out a worthwhile point that many EU countries and the United States were also holding out on the expansion of NATO until after the Turkish elections, hoping for a change in leadership.
“They were hopeful that Erdoğan would not win the elections and they would have a new person to negotiate with that would be more inclined towards their vision. They have had to accept after the runoff election that Erdoğan was going to be the president and they would have to now negotiate with him whether they liked it or not.”
This along with the fact that Turkey is recognised as one of the major contributors to NATO, is most likely why the negotiations went in favour of Erdoğan. However, the expansion of NATO, especially with Sweden’s potential membership, could tip the balance of power within Europe and have implications for Russia’s position in the region.
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Sweden’s controversial situation
Sweden has recently faced controversy, including Quran burnings and protests, which drew strong condemnation from Erdoğan. He criticised the Swedish government for hiding behind the concept of freedom of speech and equated those who permitted the crime with the perpetrators themselves. At one point, Erdoğan even stated that these events could hinder Sweden’s NATO membership. However, the recent shift in Erdoğan’s stance has raised questions about the future of Islamophobia and the treatment of Muslims in Sweden.
“The kind of heightened Islamophobia that we’re witnessing in that part of the world, the question is will that continue? Will Muslims continue to be targeted in the way that they have been? It’s important to recognise that there was a vote at the United Nations Human Rights Council on the issue of the Quraan burning where the United Nations Council has adopted the resolution countering religious hatred constituting incitement to discrimination. Interestingly Finland, who has just joined NATO as the 31st member, actually voted against that resolution and that’s disheartening. It has been approved with 28 voting in favour.”
One of the biggest factors at play for accepting Sweden is Turkey’s volatile economy. The United States has played a strong role in influencing Turkey’s economy through manipulation of currency deals and devaluation.
“Turkey’s economy has been under extreme pressure in recent years. This has been one of the biggest talking points around the election. That’s why it came down to such a tight race. The Americans have played a very strong role in manipulating the deals in relation to Turkey’s currency and the devaluation of that. There has certainly been a lot of discussion and diplomacy around this issue.”
Sweden has not been totally accepted into NATO as yet. Erdoğan still has to table the decision to parliament before it can be accepted and Sweden and join. Something he has agreed to do.
Disappointment and realism
There is a level of disappointment within the Muslim world regarding Erdoğan’s missed opportunity to address some of the burning issues affecting Muslims globally. Many hoped that Erdoğan would use his position to provide leadership on these matters. However, there is also an understanding of the realistic challenges faced by Erdoğan in navigating diplomatic negotiations. It remains to be seen how the Turkish Parliament will respond to Erdoğan’s compromise on the Sweden issue, considering his previous statements.
“I am certain that some of the parliamentarians in Turkey will raise the issue and tell him that just a few months ago you stood before us making those statements about how you would want to protect the Muslim world and that you would never allow a country that allows the burning of the Quraan to be part of this alliance and here you are compromising on that particular issue in favour of the other merits.”
While there is talk of expanding NATO and Turkey’s inclusion in the EU, it is essential to approach these discussions with caution. The EU has long delayed Turkey’s inclusion and shown reluctance to accept a predominantly Muslim and non-white population, said Adam.
While Erdoğan’s change of stance may have surprised some, it aligns with Turkey’s strategic goals and economic challenges. The implications of these developments for NATO, the EU, and Russia remain to be fully understood. The coming days will undoubtedly be crucial in shaping the future dynamics of these relationships.
Zeenat Adam spoke to Inayet Wadee on what this decision means for Turkey and the implications it could have on Russia, the EU and the world. Listen to that conversation here:
