The QLFS for Q2 is out and there are some hopeful signs Photo Stats SA
South Africa – According to the Q2 findings of Statistics SA’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) released on Tuesday, unemployment has decreased to 32.6%, with 154 000 more people finding work in the second quarter of this year. The number of employees increased to 16,3M and has almost reached pre-COVID levels of 16,4M. This is the 7th consecutive increase since Q4: 2021.
This improvement is noteworthy, especially considering the broader economic challenges faced by the nation. Even the expanded definition of unemployment, which accounts for various factors beyond the standard definition, saw a decline of 0.3% to 42.1%, said Desiree Manamela, Chief director responsible for labour statistics at StatsSA.
“We also see the not economically active population, which is the population that did not work or do not have work or they did not look for work for reasons like discouragement, they are students, or they were ill. We see the number also decreasing by a net 1000. The main thing that we are seeing is that discouragement has declined. People are starting to go and look for jobs.”
Source: Stats SA
Source: Stats SA
Source: Stats SA
A closer look at the various industries
The results of the QLFS, which covers the labour market activities of people in the country aged 15 to 64, show that the construction sector recorded the largest increase in employment with 104,000 more jobs. The trade sector followed closely with an increase of 92,000 employed individuals, and community and social services saw a rise of 63,000. While mining and agriculture created 31,000 and 7,000 jobs respectively.
However, as is often the case, some sectors experienced job losses. The manufacturing industry faced a decline of 96 000 jobs, and finance suffered a loss of about 68 000 positions. The transport sector also saw a reduction of approximately 7 000 jobs.
Getting the absorption rate back to pre-COVID levels
The “absorption rate”, which measures the proportion of the working-age population that is employed, has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels. While this rate currently stands at 40.1%, it lags behind the 42.3% rate observed a decade ago.
“If we look at 10 years ago we had about 42.3% of the population of working age in employment. This number since Covid has declined. In terms of the population that is also participating in the labour market, we are looking at the proportion of those that are in the working age population that are supposed to be active in the economy or in the labour market. They are either employed or they are looking for a job. We are looking at a figure of 59.6%. It has improved when we look at 10 years ago when the figure was like 56.6%. I would say we are a bit hopeful that we will reach those levels that were impacted by Covid.”
Province’s performances according to the survey
According to the QLFS, employment decreased in the Free State and Northern Cape, dropped by 59,000 and 17,000 respectively, while jobs in Limpopo increased by 80 000. The Western Cape and KZN also saw higher employment levels, with job increases at 54 000 and 48 000 respectively.
The North West recorded the highest expanded unemployment rate in Q2:2023, followed by Mpumalanga at 53.5% and 49.5% respectively. North West, Northern Cape, Limpopo, and KZN recorded more than 15 percentage points difference between expanded and official unemployment rates. Another surprising figure that came out from the survey is that the Eastern Cape has consistently been above South Africa’s average official unemployment rate for the last ten years.
Youth unemployment
Despite the decrease, South Africa still has the highest unemployment rate in the world. The youth are the hardest hit. While the survey doesn’t reveal why this is, it does reveal that youth aged 15-24 recorded the highest unemployment rates of 60.7%. However, the absorption rate is the lowest from all the age groups at 10.7% with the participation rate also the lowest at 27.2%.
Graduate unemployment rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 9.6% in Q2:2023 compared to 10.6% in Q1:2023. The unemployment rate for those who did not finish matric sits at a staggering 38.3% while those who completed matric sits at 35.2%. Higher than South Africa’s official unemployment rate which is 32.6%.
Utilising unemployment statistics
The collected information serves as a valuable resource for a variety of stakeholders, including government bodies, academia, researchers, and international organisations. Government entities in particular, utilise this data for policy-making and strategic planning. The conversation highlights the readily accessible nature of the data, which is available through reports, online platforms, and direct inquiries.
“We have different users of the Labor Statistics which are government academics, researchers, other international organisations and policy makers. So, the government will use the data for policy making and decision making. A mandate of Statistics South Africa is to produce the statistics and provide them to the relevant stakeholders. They are provided through reports, through the internet, the data is there and through different types of requests people can send email to Statistics South Africa.”
South Africa’s Q2 QLFS reveals a notable decline in the unemployment rate to 32.6%, accompanied by an increase of 154,000 employed individuals, signalling positive strides in the nation’s labour market recovery despite ongoing economic challenges. The report highlights growth in industries like construction and trade, along with a decrease in the expanded definition of unemployment. However, the task of fully restoring pre-pandemic employment levels remains, as indicated by the absorption rate still trailing historical figures. Challenges persist for the youth, who experience a high unemployment rate of 60.7%, emphasising the need for targeted interventions.
