The cargo ship at the heart of this controversy Photo DefenceWeb
South Africa – In recent times, there has been a flurry of speculation regarding the alleged transportation of weapons on a Russian cargo vessel known as Lady R. These claims have been met with both intrigue, scepticism and have now been disproven after an independent panel found no evidence that weapons were loaded onto the cargo vessel.
Helmoed-Römer Heitman, a defence consultant and analyst, said he still did not believe that weapons were loaded onto the cargo vessel and shipped to Russia. A statement that Guy Martin, editor of DefenceWeb, agrees with for various reasons.
“I have to agree with his [Heitman’s] aconclusions. There does not seem to be any evidence that South African weapons or ammunition was loaded onto the vessel. There’s very little that the Russians either want or can use from us. At the moment I believe they are talking to Iran and North Korea to supply them with Russian calibre ammunition because in South Africa we use NATO calibre so there’s very little compatibility.”
Furthermore, there are stringent export restrictions in place, making it unlikely for South Africa to supply weapons to Russia, said Martin. There is no evidence that indicates South Africa loaded weapons or ammunition onto the cargo ship.
From what is known, the cargo offloaded a large quantity of ammunition and none was put back. The reason for this, as Martin explained, is for South African special forces who often use these types of weapons when they are overseas as a means to blend in.
The American ambassador’s accusations
In May, the US ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigerty, accused the South African government of supplying weapons to Russia for its conflict in Ukraine. Brigerty was so confident of this fact saying he’d “bet my life” on it. However, it’s worth noting that Brigerty has not provided substantial evidence to substantiate his claims.
Brigerty’s claim had a significant impact on the South African economy as it sent the rand to three-year lows against the dollar and sparked renewed concerns about South Africa’s African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) status.
“He [Brigerty] has not, since the report came out, said anything about the matter and the US embassy has just said South Africa must draw conclusions from its own report which is a pretty non-response. He might have had some shred of evidence. What could have happened is that this Russian vessel was delivering weapons to other countries. I believe that it made several stops across Africa so perhaps he was misinformed, got the information confused and he thought that maybe we were putting our weapons on board the ship.”
South African sophistication in manufacturing weapons worldwide
To understand the controversy better we need to look at a few things. Firstly, we must consider whether South Africa possesses the sophistication to manufacture the type of weaponry required by Russia or other nations. While South Africa does have some foreign-based companies manufacturing armaments, their primary focus is NATO calibre ammunition.
“Rheinmetall Denel Munition, they’re a massive manufacturer of ammunition. They’ve got facilities across South Africa but they manufacture NATO calibre ammunition. That will be 155 millimetre artillery shells and so forth. They’ve done a lot of business since the Ukraine conflict started because a lot of European countries Germany, Poland, Latvia and so on, they’ve been increasing their military spending because they’re quite alarmed by what’s happening in Ukraine. The ammunition they manufacture is not compatible with most Russian guns. Even if they got hold of it, it wouldn’t be of much use to them.”
Another possibility lies in the presence of foreign companies in South Africa manufacturing weaponry for sale elsewhere. German companies, for instance, have established plants in South Africa. However, the likelihood of these companies supplying weapons to Russia remains slim. Most of their products are tailored for NATO countries, making it improbable that they would divert their shipments to Russia.
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Russian defence industry
It is important to note that Russia boasts an extensive defence industry capable of meeting its own requirements. They have a diverse array of military vehicle manufacturers, small arms manufacturers, and ample artillery ammunition supplies. Additionally, Russia has been seeking alternative suppliers, such as Iran and North Korea, to fulfil its needs.
“Russia is turning to two other suppliers and South Africa just doesn’t make sense that they would either need what we have or be able to acquire drones from us in the numbers they’re looking at. For instance in Iran, they’re buying thousands of drones from the Iranians and the South African industry might be able to make dozens. There’s no way we will be able to supply Russia with thousands.”
The Lady R being a red herring or diplomatic distraction
One prevailing question is whether the Lady R incident serves as a red herring or a diversion tactic.There are speculations that it may have been orchestrated to shift focus away from events in South Africa or to divert attention from international affairs. While a red herring is an unlikely thing, the US could be using this as a way to settle scores with South Africa, said Martin.
“The United States has been very upset with South Africa’s very soft stance, I would say pro-Russia stance, since the invasion of Ukraine. The Lady R saga is just one of many issues that upset the Americans and I think it might have been the straw that broke the camel’s back.”
On the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine in February, the South African Navy hosted an exercise with the Chinese and Russian navies. The timing was very sensitive and caused a lot of backlash internationally and locally. This is one of the incidents that might have upset the Americans and it showed a serious level of tone deafness, Martin pointed out. In fact, this whole Lady R saga could have been avoided with South Africa “publishing the cargo manifest immediately”.
The US-South Africa relationship
Martin believes that one of the reasons the panel was established is because the government released its relationship with the US had become strained which has led to the country suffering.
“One of the reasons why the rand has been performing so poorly is because of South Africa’s choices in essentially choosing Russia over Ukraine and our Western allies. Although our foreign policy is neutral and we support a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, South Africa has clearly sided more with the Russians. Our government has sort of walked that back a little bit because it has seen how damaging this position has been.”
The timing of the Lady R saga coinciding with Goa agreement negotiations in the US suggests a potential leverage strategy. Martin believes this could have been used by the US to try and get “South Africa to play ball and for the United States to get better terms”.
Lack of concrete evidence and lack of action
One of the central issues in this controversy is the absence of concrete evidence to support Brigerty’s allegations of weapons transfers. With Brigerty going as far as staking his life on these claims and with no definitive proof being shared, he must face consequences for his actions if he lied.
“He claimed that he had evidence. He said he would stake his life on it and since then he has not shared any proof … It’s a rather strange situation. Either he was misinformed or he was just playing politics and using this as leverage for diplomatic gains but he should be held accountable because remarks like that are reckless. If he was misinformed then he should just admit it and say so but his remarks have been reckless and extremely damaged the performance of the rand, our international reputation. It’s not good fallout from the Lady R saga.”
The Lady R Saga remains a complex and intriguing issue that has stirred diplomatic tensions and raised questions about transparency and credibility. While the allegations have not been substantiated with concrete evidence, the diplomatic fallout and economic consequences persist. Whether this controversy will continue to unravel or eventually fade away remains uncertain. However, damage has been done and there is no telling how much more damage the country will suffer because of Brigerty’s reckless remarks. If Brigerty cannot substantiate his statements, it’s imperative for the government to take appropriate action. Given the significant harm caused, we cannot afford to overlook this. A robust response is necessary to ensure accountability and prevent the US from acting without repercussions once again.
