South Africa – The remarks from Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa earlier this week have left many South Africans puzzled, prompting questions about the implications for the country’s energy supply. The minister expressed an inability to predict the load-shedding outlook for the current year due to the unreliability of Eskom’s generational fleet.
“I can’t say to the country there will not be load-shedding going into the future. That is why when the alert goes out, it says load-shedding [suspended] until further notice because we have no control on some units. They are extremely unreliable,” stated Minister Ramokgopa.
Energy Expert Ruse Moleshe criticised the minister’s statement, asserting that giving the public the impression he could forecast load shedding and its cessation was a mistake.
“The minister should have never given the impression that he could predict what would happen in the system … It is an undesirable situation. We don’t seem to have a credible plan on the table, with a credible timeline, and that is why the minister is telling us that he cannot predict what will happen.”
The minister’s words are particularly perplexing, considering earlier projections provided a timeline of 18 months to two years, indicating a reduction in load shedding and an end to power cuts by the close of 2024.
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Moleshe highlighted various interventions and processes the President and the Energy Minister proposed to enhance the generational fleet. However, she pointed out a significant challenge arising from this improvement, specifically, the lack of additional capacity during scheduled maintenance and other essential requirements.
Despite notable progress compared to last year’s load shedding, Moleshe argued that, given the existing plans, the power utility should have overcome these issues.
She proposed that at this point, the nation should have the necessary infrastructure to efficiently receive, store, and transmit energy from supplementary sources, guaranteeing a seamless and uninterrupted flow of energy. The absence of such infrastructure implies that load shedding will persist indefinitely.
“The Karpowership was one of the interventions that had been put in place, but as you would have seen in the media recently, in terms of transmission access from Eskom, it is no longer available. So that option is also not on the table right now.”
According to Moleshe, the only way for the government, the Electricity Minister, and Eskom to successfully implement their plans is to provide themselves with more time, a luxury the majority of people do not have.
“Government must provide additional capacity, and it will take time to do that because the transmission infrastructure is also lacking [the ability] to take that power to where it’s supposed to be. So that is, unfortunately, a question of time that is still required to be able to plan sufficiently.”
