The Democratic Alliance (DA) and uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party are set to make gains in the next election, according to a survey. [Picture: iStock]
With the battle heating up ahead of the 2024 national and provincial elections, survey results have painted a picture of how the country might emerge from the polls. This as analysts predict a watershed election for the young democracy.
“There’s no doubt that the election of 2024 is going to be the most difficult election since 1994, also the most competitive one,” said Professor Andre Duvenhage, political analyst at the North West University (NWU) in Potchefstroom, adding, “as a result of that, we can expect that this is not going to be easy”.
Successive voter opinion surveys have placed the ruling African National Congress (ANC) well below the 50+1 percent threshold required to form a government after the elections.
The most recent, by the Brenthurst Foundation, predicted wins for John Steenhuisen’s Democratic Alliance (DA) and Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party. At the same time, it spelt trouble for the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).
SMread: Muslims need to vote practically in the 2024 elections
Losses and gains
Based on fieldwork done nationally between 12 and 28 February, the latest survey placed support for the ANC at an all-time low. The party that has governed since the end of apartheid, tainted by corruption and mismanagement, was predicted to garner just 39% of the vote.
The DA remained the second-largest party, with 27% support. The MK Party was placed at 13% – above the EFF’s 10%. These findings were based on the basis of a 66% turnout.
The biggest issues facing the country, according to voters, were: unemployment (28%); corruption (27%); load shedding (17%); and weak leadership (12%).
The majority of ANC voters (53%) said the party’s stance on the Gaza Genocide made no difference in their likelihood to vote for it. Nearly a quarter (23%) were less likely, while 19% said they were more likely.
SMread: Israel prevents Ramadan prayers at Al Aqsa
Election observation
Due to the high stakes of the upcoming elections, the DA had written to Western governments seeking assistance to secure the 29 May polls.
In a letter addressed to the foreign ministries of G7 nations, the European Union (EU) and Nordic countries, the DA’s shadow minister for international relations, Emma Powell, sought assistance to strengthen capacity for domestic observers.
“As the ruling elite grow more desperate to retain electoral support ahead of the upcoming elections, they may be willing to put their narrow political interests ahead of our country’s broader interests and sacred constitutional values,” she wrote.
The letter prompted harsh reactions from the ANC and its president, Cyril Ramaphosa. The incumbent accused the DA of “almost trying to mortgage our country to other powers in the world”.
But Duvenhage said the move by the opposition was debatable, but he was concerned about a surge in violence ahead of the elections.
“Already, there is a lot of violence in the process so, yes, there are concerns about the ability of the IEC to deliver free and fair elections … We can debate the role of all of this, but my take is if you really have a free and fair election, you can deploy people to assess these elections on all levels,” he said.
He further said nothing was stopping the ANC from approaching Russia or China for the same purpose. “What is critical is that these groupings are not involved or trying to influence the election one way or another.”
Another concern was the possibility of violence should Zuma’s MK Party be barred from contesting the elections. He said: “The fact of the matter is that if the MK party is not going to participate in the election, we may see high levels of violence, especially in KZN.”
However it played out, he said, the upcoming elections are “critical” and are “going to define our future for the next decade or more”.
